Bharti Airtel targets: CLSA, MS flag 27-38% upside

Why Bharti Airtel is back in focus

Bharti Airtel has seen a fresh round of brokerage notes that keep the stock in the spotlight, even as quarterly numbers and overseas developments pull sentiment in different directions. CLSA reiterated its Outperform view in multiple notes, with target prices cited at ₹2,310 per share in one note and ₹2,285 per share after better-than-expected Q2FY26 results. Morgan Stanley maintained an Overweight rating with a target price of ₹2,450.

The push and pull is clear in the market reaction. Shares rose over 2 percent on a Thursday even after the company reported a sharp year-on-year decline in March-quarter consolidated net profit. In a separate instance, Airtel shares rose nearly 3 percent in early trade after strong July-September quarter (Q2FY26) earnings.

CLSA’s ₹2,310 call and what sits inside the valuation

In its valuation framework for Bharti Airtel, CLSA valued Bharti’s 62 percent stake in Africa at market cap. The brokerage noted that this component is 6 percent of its ₹2,310 target price, and it did not separately value Airtel Money in that framework.

That detail matters because it indicates where CLSA is assigning value today and what it is leaving out. If Airtel Money becomes value-accretive through a public listing, the “not separately valued” portion could become a more visible line item in sum-of-the-parts discussions. However, CLSA’s note, as cited, only outlines the valuation approach and the omission of a separate Airtel Money valuation, without quantifying an uplift to the target price.

Airtel Money IPO: what CLSA flagged

On the Airtel Money IPO, CLSA said Airtel Money could raise US$1.5-2.0 billion at a potential valuation of US$10 billion, described as up four-fold from 2021. CLSA also said this implied about 60 percent of Airtel Africa’s market capitalisation.

These figures were presented as an IPO possibility and valuation marker rather than a confirmed transaction. The key takeaway from the note is the size of the potential equity story within the Airtel Africa ecosystem, and why some valuations may treat Airtel Money as an embedded option.

March-quarter snapshot: profit down, revenue up

Bharti Airtel’s shares rose more than 2 percent to an intraday high of ₹1,833 on the BSE on Thursday, despite a 34 percent YoY fall in March-quarter consolidated net profit to ₹7,325 crore. At the same time, the company reported quarterly revenue of ₹55,383 crore, reflecting a 16 percent YoY rise.

The quarter also showed strong operating profitability in India operations. India EBITDA stood at ₹23,965 crore, with margins expanding to 60.6 percent. The combination of higher revenue and strong margins alongside lower net profit underlines why investors often track operating trends and cash generation in addition to headline profit.

Q2FY26: CLSA reiterates Outperform on “above expectations” results

CLSA maintained its Outperform rating on Bharti Airtel with a target price of ₹2,285 after the telecom operator reported better-than-expected Q2FY26 results, driven by strong performance in both India and Africa. The brokerage also highlighted cash generation and balance sheet metrics for the first half of FY26.

CLSA said Bharti generated consolidated free cash flow of ₹31,900 crore in H1FY26 after leases and capex of ₹19,700 crore, while gearing remained low at around 1.2x. Separately, the note cited that strong balance sheet discipline and healthy cash generation provide flexibility for expansion and deleveraging.

ARPU and operating momentum highlighted by brokerages

Following the July-September quarter, brokerages stayed largely constructive on Airtel’s outlook. CLSA pointed to 3-4 percent sequential and 13-20 percent YoY growth in India’s mobile revenue and EBITDA, attributing it to subscriber upgrades and higher data consumption.

It also flagged that ARPU rose 10 percent YoY to ₹256. Jefferies maintained a Buy rating with a target price of ₹2,635, citing a broad-based beat in Q2 and expecting continued subscriber premiumisation and improved monetisation trends. Jefferies also raised FY26–FY28 earnings estimates by 1-4 percent.

Airtel Africa stake consolidation and the London market reaction

In London, shares of Airtel Africa PLC fell 13 percent to 359.20 pence on Wednesday after Bharti Airtel confirmed it will raise its stake but buy shares at a discount to the prior closing share price. Bharti Airtel said the Airtel Africa shares will be bought at a discount of around 11.6 percent to the last closing price.

In a regulatory filing, Bharti Airtel approved the issue of 146.8 million shares to Indian Continent Investment Ltd, in exchange for up to 16.3 percent of Airtel Africa shares. Bharti Airtel described the deal as being in line with the objective of consolidating and strengthening shareholding in a strategic subsidiary.

Sector note: CLSA sees Bharti and Jio taking more of the pie

In a separate telecom sector note, CLSA said Bharti Airtel and Jio’s revenue market share could rise to 85 percent by FY27. The note also cited industry context, including that industry top line grew 13 percent last year, and referenced revenue market share estimates including 41.8 percent for Jio and 38.7 percent for Bharti Airtel, with Vodafone Idea described as struggling.

The note’s broader message is that revenue concentration in the top two operators may continue, which can influence pricing power, investment capacity, and the competitive environment.

Key numbers and brokerage targets at a glance

Timeline of notable events mentioned

Market impact: what investors appear to be weighing

The notes and price targets show that broker confidence is leaning on cash flows, operating momentum in India, and the strategic value of Africa operations. Even when net profit fell sharply in the March quarter, the stock moved higher as revenue growth and India EBITDA margin expansion remained supportive data points.

At the same time, the Airtel Africa development shows that structure and pricing of overseas transactions can move sentiment in listed subsidiaries quickly, as reflected in the London stock reaction to the discounted purchase. Investors are also tracking optionality from Airtel Money, especially after CLSA outlined a potential IPO fundraise range and a US$10 billion valuation marker.

Analysis: why these updates matter

The cluster of targets and reiterations from CLSA, Morgan Stanley, and Jefferies reflects how Airtel is being valued on multiple levers: India mobile monetisation (including ARPU movement), operating margin strength, and balance sheet discipline. CLSA’s disclosure that Airtel Money was not separately valued in one SOTP framework is also a useful signal of what is currently “in the price” versus what remains an upside scenario.

Separately, the telecom sector note from CLSA points to continued revenue concentration among the top two players. If Bharti Airtel and Jio’s revenue share rises toward the cited 85 percent by FY27, it could influence competitive intensity and how operators approach tariff actions and network investment.

Conclusion

Bharti Airtel’s latest brokerage commentary keeps the stock in focus for a mix of near-term operating delivery and longer-term optionality around Africa and Airtel Money. The next set of investor cues will likely come from further disclosures on Africa shareholding actions and any formal progress updates on Airtel Money’s IPO considerations, alongside quarterly operating trends such as ARPU and EBITDA margins.