Bharti Airtel top pick: Jefferies target ₹2,760 for 2026

Why Jefferies is focused on Airtel now

Jefferies has reiterated a constructive view on the Indian telecom sector and has repeatedly highlighted Bharti Airtel as its preferred pick. The brokerage’s latest bullish framing ties Airtel’s outlook to tariff actions, industry structure, and the expected market impact of Reliance Jio’s planned IPO. Across different notes referenced in the available material, Jefferies has published multiple target prices for Airtel, reflecting changing assumptions on timing and risk.

Airtel’s investment case, as described by the brokerage, leans on improving monetisation, market share gains, and free cash flow strength. Jefferies also points to the possibility of a more concentrated telecom market, which could support pricing power over time.

Jefferies’ price target history shows shifting assumptions

The material includes several Jefferies target prices for Bharti Airtel, indicating that the firm has adjusted its stance as sector triggers and macro risks evolved. One mention pegs Airtel as the top pick with a price target of ₹2,350. Another note says Jefferies cut its target price to ₹2,250 from ₹2,575, citing a potential delay in Jio’s IPO and rising macro risks, while still maintaining a Buy rating and flagging a 25% upside from the previous close.

Separately, Jefferies is also cited as raising its target price to ₹2,760, describing this level as implying about 32% upside and reaffirming Airtel as its leading choice in Indian telecom. There is also reference to a target price of ₹2,635, including an Investing.com summary that notes Jefferies raised the target to INR 2,635 from INR 2,500, following what it called a “broad-based beat” in September 2025 results.

Taken together, the sequence suggests Jefferies has kept Airtel in its preferred basket even as it moved its valuation levels up or down depending on IPO timing, tariff visibility, and macro conditions.

Telecom sector revenue outlook to FY28

Jefferies projects the Indian telecom industry could reach USD 41.0 billion in revenue by the end of FY28. The brokerage links that trajectory to tariff increases and continued data and subscriber monetisation. In one excerpt, Jefferies also expects a potential 15% tariff hike around December 2026, which would be a key lever for industry revenue expansion.

At the same time, another Jefferies note in the material indicates the firm trimmed India revenue and EBITDA estimates by 6-8% for FY26-28, pointing to “low chances” of tariff hikes by June 2026 due to inflation and regulatory delays. That nuance matters because it shifts the timing of cash generation and de-risking for the sector.

Tariff hikes: what Jefferies is building into its Airtel model

Beyond the potential December 2026 move, Jefferies also incorporates broader tariff actions into its Airtel forecasts. Over a three-year view, the brokerage factors in around 25% cumulative mobile tariff hikes for Bharti between FY27 and FY28. In that framework, Jefferies estimates 16% CAGR in ARPU from FY26 to FY28, alongside 18-19% annual growth in India mobile revenues and EBITDA.

The brokerage also frames Airtel as a likely beneficiary of subscriber “premiumisation” and improving monetisation. Another excerpt states Jefferies upgraded Airtel to “buy” on expectations that hikes in voice tariffs and a better tariff outlook could support the stock.

Jio IPO seen as a re-rating trigger, not a threat

Jefferies repeatedly ties sector re-rating potential to the expected Jio IPO in the first half of 2026. The brokerage argues the listing could act as a catalyst through improved tariff discipline and a higher market profile for telecom within institutional portfolios.

One Jefferies view in the material is that the telecom sector’s weight in indices could rise from 4-5% to 7-8%, a shift it expects would benefit Bharti Airtel alongside Jio. Jefferies also contends that Jio’s IPO is unlikely to negatively impact Bharti, citing that Airtel’s stock rose 32% in 2025 despite over USD 5.0 billion in promoter share sales.

Airtel’s FY27 growth and margin expectations

Jefferies’ projections in the provided text point to a strong FY27. The brokerage expects consolidated revenue growth of about 17% year-on-year in FY27, driven by 19% growth in the India mobile segment and 20% growth in the international portfolio.

On profitability, Jefferies expects FY27 consolidated EBITDA to rise 18%, with margins “near 56%.” It also expects capital expenditure intensity to ease to 20-21% of sales, which supports its free cash flow thesis.

Free cash flow and shareholder returns in focus

Free cash flow is a central pillar of the Jefferies narrative in the material. One excerpt states that lower capex intensity could support a 19% increase in free cash flow to about ₹540 billion. Another note (via Investing.com) highlights robust free cash flow generation and suggests this could enable higher shareholder distributions in the future.

Jefferies also closes one report by calling Airtel its top choice due to “robust growth prospects, improving free cash flow, and increasing dividends.”

Optional growth levers: enterprise, data centre, cloud

Jefferies flags additional growth optionality from enterprise, data centre, and cloud services. These activities are described as about 2% of revenues from India (excluding towers). The brokerage suggests these segments could add 1-3 percentage points of extra growth annually over the next five years as they scale.

While the base case remains anchored in mobile tariffs and market share, the emphasis on these newer revenue streams indicates Jefferies is also tracking Airtel’s ability to diversify beyond core mobility.

Indus Towers also sees an upgraded target

Alongside Airtel, Jefferies is cited as raising its target price for Indus Towers to ₹510 from ₹425. The report language suggests Indus Towers may see a re-rating linked to sector conditions and policy-related relief measures mentioned in the text.

Broader market context: Jefferies’ Nifty view

The material also references Jefferies’ broader equity market outlook. The brokerage forecasts Nifty at 28,300 by December 2026, expecting steady domestic flows, stronger EPS growth, macro stability, and a sector-wide earnings rebound to support a 10% upside from current levels.

This macro framing matters because telecom valuation upgrades often depend on both earnings delivery and market risk appetite.

Key facts at a glance

Jefferies targets mentioned for Airtel and Indus Towers

What to watch next

Jefferies’ thesis depends heavily on tariff actions and how the sector sets pricing ahead of and after Jio’s expected IPO window in the first half of 2026. The material also highlights that tariff hikes by June 2026 are viewed as less likely in one note, which makes the timing of any December 2026 move important for investor expectations.

For Bharti Airtel, the key signposts embedded in the brokerage’s projections are FY27 growth delivery, the pace of ARPU expansion, and whether capex intensity trends towards the 20-21% range cited. Investors will also track how index weight changes and IPO-related positioning influence telecom valuations as 2026 approaches.