Hindalco Q4 FY26: Axis Direct sees ₹1,220 target

Axis Direct’s top metals picks

Axis Direct has picked APL Apollo Tubes Ltd and Hindalco Industries Ltd as its top stock ideas from the metals and mining space. The brokerage has maintained a ‘Buy’ rating on both counters, citing business momentum and execution visibility.

For Hindalco, Axis Direct has also reiterated a target price of ₹1,220. The brokerage’s note points to a strong expansion pipeline, improving prospects in the copper business, and steady progress at its Novelis operations.

What stood out in Hindalco’s Q4 FY26 print

Hindalco’s Q4 FY26 numbers showed a split between top-line strength and bottom-line pressure. The company reported quarterly revenue of ₹78,133 crore, up 20% year-on-year from ₹64,890 crore in Q4 FY25. Consolidated EBITDA came in at ₹11,197 crore, which the company described as an all-time high and was up 9% over the year-ago quarter.

Profit after tax (PAT), however, fell sharply. PAT for Q4 FY26 was ₹2,597 crore, down 50.85% from ₹5,284 crore in Q4 FY25. In parallel, a market snapshot in the provided data described a profit margin contraction of about 480 basis points compared to the previous year.

Axis Direct’s investment view on Hindalco

Axis Direct’s Buy thesis, as stated, focuses on three operating levers: expansion projects, copper improvement, and the progress at Novelis. The brokerage’s target price of ₹1,220 is explicitly linked to the “strong expansion pipeline” and “improving prospects in the copper business,” along with steady execution at the global subsidiary.

The note also places Hindalco among companies that met or surpassed expectations, within the metals coverage universe. In the same context, NALCO was mentioned as benefiting from effective cost management, although its performance was described as softer than the previous quarter.

Consolidated highlights and operating metrics

The results summary in the text also listed a separate set of Q4 highlights for total income, operating profit, and operating margin. These figures show a decline in profitability measures even as revenue improved year-on-year.

Key reported highlights (as provided)

Segment performance: aluminium upstream and downstream

Hindalco’s Aluminium Upstream business in India reported revenue of ₹11,418 crore in Q4 FY26, up 11% from ₹10,311 crore in Q4 FY25. Segment EBITDA reached a record ₹5,448 crore, rising 13%, with EBITDA per tonne up 4%.

In Aluminium Downstream, revenue rose to ₹4,867 crore in Q4 FY26 from ₹3,595 crore in Q4 FY25, a 35% year-on-year increase. Shipments increased 18% to 124 KT. EBITDA was reported at a record ₹255 crore, up 16%.

Copper business: revenue and EBITDA hit records

The copper business was a key growth driver within the quarter. Segment revenue jumped 52% year-on-year to ₹22,156 crore in Q4 FY26 from ₹14,565 crore in Q4 FY25. Segment EBITDA hit a record ₹907 crore, up 48%.

The company attributed the performance to strong operational execution and higher realisations in by-products such as sulphuric acid. Axis Direct’s commentary also specifically flagged improving prospects in copper as part of its continued Buy stance.

Novelis: higher revenue, EBITDA softer

Novelis, Hindalco’s global subsidiary, reported Q4 FY26 revenue of $1,787 million, up 4% year-on-year, driven by higher metal prices. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $159 million, down 3%.

The note cited lower shipment volumes due to the Oswego disruption and tariff headwinds as factors weighing on profitability. This creates an important contrast in the quarter: revenue moved higher while operational and external frictions affected EBITDA.

A look back: FY25 milestone quarter and full-year record

The provided background also includes Hindalco’s earlier FY25 disclosures. For the quarter ended March 31, 2025, Hindalco reported consolidated EBITDA of ₹10,296 crore, up 43% year-on-year, and net profit of ₹5,284 crore, up 66%.

For FY25, consolidated profit after tax was reported at ₹16,002 crore, up from ₹10,155 crore in FY24. Annual revenue rose to ₹2,38,496 crore from ₹2,15,962 crore in the previous fiscal.

Dividend recommendation noted in the release

The text also states that the company delivered record consolidated revenue and EBITDA for both the quarter and the full year, and that the board recommended a dividend of ₹5 per share for FY26. This is presented as part of the results narrative accompanying the latest performance update.

Market impact: what the numbers signal for investors

For markets, the immediate takeaway from the Q4 FY26 data is the divergence between revenue growth and profit compression. Revenue growth of 20% year-on-year to ₹78,133 crore was accompanied by a year-on-year PAT decline of about 51% to ₹2,597 crore.

At the segment level, India aluminium upstream and downstream both reported record EBITDA in Q4 FY26, and copper showed strong growth in both revenue and EBITDA. But Novelis reported a year-on-year decline in adjusted EBITDA, with the Oswego disruption and tariff headwinds flagged as pressure points.

Analysis: why Axis Direct stayed constructive

Axis Direct’s Buy stance appears anchored in business-level drivers rather than a single-quarter PAT outcome. The brokerage’s note highlights the expansion pipeline, which implies continued project-led growth visibility, and it separately points to improving copper prospects, which aligns with the quarter’s strong copper segment numbers.

The third element is Novelis. While Q4 FY26 adjusted EBITDA dipped year-on-year, the brokerage still referenced “steady progress” at Novelis, suggesting it is tracking execution and stabilisation through operational disruptions and external headwinds.

Conclusion: key facts to track after Q4 FY26

Hindalco’s Q4 FY26 results combined strong consolidated revenue growth and record EBITDA with a sharp decline in net profit. Aluminium and copper segments posted record EBITDA, while Novelis reported higher revenue but lower adjusted EBITDA due to operational disruption and tariff-related headwinds.

Axis Direct maintained a Buy rating on Hindalco with a target price of ₹1,220, alongside APL Apollo as a top idea in metals and mining. Investors will likely track updates on the expansion pipeline, the copper earnings trajectory, and operating progress at Novelis, along with the dividend recommendation of ₹5 per share for FY26.