India wind power: 10 GW yearly needed for 2070 net-zero

Why wind targets are back in focus

India needs to add nearly 10 GW of wind capacity every year for the next decade to stay on track for its broader net-zero goal by 2070, Union New and Renewable Energy Minister Pralhad Joshi said. The comment comes as the government prepares a revival plan for the wind sector after a period of slower growth and repeated execution challenges. Wind is a key pillar in India’s non-fossil electricity buildout, alongside large-scale solar. But the sector’s recent annual additions have not consistently matched the pace implied by long-term targets. The government is now leaning on bidding schedules, transmission incentives, and repowering of older turbines to lift installations.

The government’s capacity goals: 100 GW by 2030

Joshi said the government is confident of reaching 100 GW of installed wind capacity by 2030 and 156 GW by 2036. He also linked the near-term buildout to the longer net-zero pathway, stating India must add nearly 10 GW of wind capacity every year for the next decade. The scale of the target highlights the gap between recent additions and what is required to double installed capacity in a short timeframe. India has crossed 50 GW of wind installations, but the next leg of growth will depend on faster land acquisition, stronger grid connectivity, and smoother offtake arrangements.

Where installed capacity stands right now

The article cites multiple official reference points for capacity. As of October 31, 2025, India’s installed wind capacity stood at 53.59 GW. By end-FY25, total installed capacity was reported at 50.04 GW, compared with 39.25 GW in FY21. Separately, Joshi said India has over 56.1 GW installed capacity, after a historic 6.1 GW addition during 2025-26, with a further 28 GW under implementation. These figures reflect different cut-off dates and reporting contexts, but they collectively point to a sector that has resumed additions after a muted phase.

Recent addition trend: improving, but still short of 10 GW a year

Between FY21 and FY25, India added around 12.3 GW of new wind capacity, with annual installations rising from about 1.5 GW to over 4.1 GW during that period. Over FY21 to FY25, installed capacity rose from 39.25 GW to 50.04 GW, a compound annual growth rate of about 5.8 percent. FY26 has already seen the addition of 3.56 GW within the first seven months, signalling a stronger run-rate if execution continues. Still, the stated requirement of roughly 10 GW a year implies that installations must accelerate substantially beyond the FY21-FY25 average.

Policy levers: bidding, RPOs, and transmission waivers

Several measures have been highlighted as drivers for faster buildout. These include a target of 10 GW of annual onshore wind bids from 2023 to 2027, tariff-based competitive bidding guidelines to standardise procurement, and sector-specific renewable purchase obligations notified up to 2030. The government also waived interstate transmission system (ISTS) charges for inter-state sale of solar and wind power for projects to be commissioned by June 30, 2025. These steps are designed to reduce friction in procurement and improve project bankability, particularly when state-level demand and payment risk remain key concerns.

Green Energy Open Access and the push beyond discom dependence

Joshi said India is advancing Green Energy Open Access rules that allow industries to buy wind power directly from developers. The stated intent is to reduce dependence on state distribution companies (discoms) and enable more predictable demand from creditworthy industrial buyers. Open access and direct procurement can help developers diversify offtake and potentially improve cashflow visibility. The government has also pointed to transmission expansion under the Green Energy Corridor as part of the enabling infrastructure.

Repowering: a central plank, but slow uptake so far

For onshore wind, the government is prioritising repowering of old turbines at high-potential sites. Joshi said a national policy framework is already in place to enable replacement of ageing machines. MNRE introduced its first repowering policy in 2016, followed by the National Repowering and Life Extension Policy in 2023, which superseded the earlier framework. The policy estimates repowering potential at around 25 GW, largely at sites with older turbines of up to 2 MW. Despite this potential and clearer policy structure, uptake has been slow, according to the article.

A separate dataset cited in the article suggests full repowering of the existing wind turbine fleet could boost nationwide capacity factors by 82%, from 0.19 to 0.35. While this is not an installation number, it reinforces why repowering remains a high-impact lever, especially in constrained land parcels where new development is difficult.

Offshore wind: tenders and identified seabed areas

Momentum strengthened in June 2025 when the minister announced plans for a new offshore wind tender of up to 4 GW. At the Global Wind Day conference in June, Joshi said offshore wind development is being kick-started, with 4 GW of seabed areas already identified off the coasts of Gujarat and Tamil Nadu. Offshore wind is still nascent in India, but tendering signals an attempt to broaden the resource base beyond traditional onshore corridors.

What ratings agencies and industry expect by FY27

Crisil Ratings expects annual wind capacity additions to more than double to 7.1 GW on average over the next two financial years, compared with 3.4 GW in the 2023-2025 period. This projected growth is expected to take India’s installed wind capacity to 63 GW by FY27. The article notes that India added 3.42 GW in 2024 and may add around 6 GW by the end of the current year, as it has already added more than 3.42 GW.

Policy changes discussed include a shift away from reverse auctions to a single-stage, two-envelope closed bidding process to curb irrational bids. One report also expects tariffs to rise 20-30% over the recent Rs 2.89-2.94 per unit range due to the new bidding process, resource variability at newer sites, and other factors, while aiming to support developer returns. Another policy lever is tariff pooling for discoms, where discovered renewable tariffs for each state are pooled and offered at an average tariff through an intermediary such as SECI. Execution discipline has also been tightened, with bank guarantees to be revoked for delays beyond a year and a five-year bar for delays beyond 18 months.

Key figures at a glance

Market impact: what changes for developers, buyers, and grid planning

For developers, the combination of higher tender volumes, changes in auction design, and tariff pooling can reshape project economics and bidding strategy. The shift to closed bidding and expectations of higher tariffs relative to Rs 2.89-2.94 per unit are aimed at reducing aggressive pricing that can later translate into delays. For industrial consumers, Green Energy Open Access creates a clearer pathway to procure wind power directly, potentially reducing reliance on discom contracting. For the grid, the emphasis on transmission buildout and earlier ISTS waivers underscores that evacuation availability remains a binding constraint.

At the sector level, the article also flags uncertainty on whether the 100 GW by 2030 target will be met. It notes that even in a best-case scenario, the wind sector is likely to fall short of the 100 GW target, given the gap between the required 10 GW annual run-rate and the pace seen between FY21 and FY25.

Analysis: why 10 GW a year is hard, and where the upside lies

The stated need for nearly 10 GW of annual additions is significant because it implies a step-change not just in tendering, but in land acquisition, permitting, and evacuation readiness. The revival plan referenced in the article aims to address land bottlenecks and inadequate grid connectivity, both frequent causes of slippage. Repowering could be a practical route because it targets established high-potential sites, but slow uptake suggests commercial and operational hurdles remain. Offshore wind adds a longer-duration growth option, but it will likely require sustained tendering and ecosystem development.

At the national planning level, the article references broader system targets, including a tendering schedule designed to realise 500 GW of non-fossil electricity generation capacity by 2030. It also cites an updated National Electricity Plan proposal of 121 GW of wind and 365 GW of solar PV by 2032, indicating that wind is expected to retain a sizeable role even as solar dominates new builds.

Conclusion: targets are clear, execution is the test

India’s wind targets have been restated with specific milestones, and policy tools such as annual bids, open access, repowering frameworks, and offshore tenders are being positioned to accelerate installations. Installed capacity has moved beyond 50 GW, but the requirement of near-10 GW annual additions for the next decade sets a high execution bar. The next markers to watch are tender award volumes, commissioning timelines given the 20 to 24 month project cycle cited in the article, and the progress of repowering and offshore tender implementation.