Macquarie flags power upcycle: NTPC target Rs 480

What Macquarie is saying on India’s power sector

Macquarie has reiterated a constructive view on India’s power sector, pointing to strong demand growth, rising renewable integration, and improving discom finances as long-term drivers. In its sector view, the brokerage expects India to enter a transmission-led capital expenditure cycle to support the changing geography of generation and consumption. The core issue, according to Macquarie, is the mismatch between renewable energy-rich states and major demand centres. That mismatch, it argues, makes transmission build-out a central theme over the coming decade.

The brokerage’s preference list places NTPC at the top, followed by JSW Energy and Power Grid. Adani Green, Adani Power, and Adani Energy Solutions are ranked lower in Macquarie’s “pecking order” in the same note. The call comes at a time when power and renewables counters have remained in focus, supported by sector narratives around energy transition and electricity demand.

Transmission-led capex cycle: the $11 billion headline

A key data point in Macquarie’s thesis is the investment required in transmission infrastructure. Macquarie estimates that about US $11 billion will be required by 2035-36 (also referenced as through FY36) to resolve the geographic mismatch between renewable-rich states and major demand centres. The brokerage describes this as a transmission-led capex cycle, positioning grid investments as a structural requirement rather than a discretionary spend.

The point matters for listed utilities and grid companies because regulated, planned capex can translate into predictable asset additions. Macquarie also links the transmission theme to broader sector drivers such as renewable integration and improving distribution company finances. Taken together, these drivers frame the sector as a longer-duration opportunity rather than a short-term trade.

Stock preference list: NTPC leads, followed by JSW Energy and Power Grid

Macquarie has picked NTPC as its top bet in the sector. The brokerage has also highlighted JSW Energy and Power Grid among its preferred names. In the same sequence, it placed Adani Green, Adani Power, and Adani Energy Solutions lower.

The rationale provided around NTPC emphasises its position as a play on energy security and transition, with benefits from both themes. Macquarie has also described NTPC as offering a mix of regulated capex and renewables exposure. It notes that the predominantly brownfield nature of NTPC’s upcoming thermal capacity addition reduces execution slippage risks, and that nuclear could be a longer-term driver. Macquarie said it expects more clarity on nuclear as a long-term growth driver within six months.

Target prices and implied upsides cited in the notes

Macquarie raised its target price on NTPC to Rs 480 per share, indicating an upside potential of 36.5% from the previous closing price. Elsewhere in the material, Macquarie is also described as issuing a target price of Rs 475 per share for NTPC, indicating a 35% upside from the previous session’s closing price.

For Power Grid, Macquarie raised its target price to Rs 400 per share, implying upside potential of about 39%. The same material also mentions Power Grid coverage with an ‘outperform’ rating and a price target of Rs 380 per share, and another reference to a revised target of Rs 400, up from Rs 390 earlier. Separately, a note in the text also cites “Power Grid (Buy; TP: Rs 350/sh)”, and highlights factors such as equipment cost escalation, incremental HVDC projects, and inclusion of C&I and green hydrogen-linked renewable capacities in planning.

For Adani Green, Macquarie increased its target price to Rs 1,700 per share, indicating an upside of nearly 15%.

Trading moves that coincided with the sector chatter

The sector tone described in the material matched visible price action in select counters. NTPC Green Energy was reported to have traded at an intraday high of Rs 103.2, up around 19% during the day. The text also notes that several renewable and power generation counters were trading higher, including KPI Green Energy, NTPC, NLC India, KP Energy, and Adani Green Energy.

At 9.23 am in one referenced market update, NTPC shares were up around 1.6% at Rs 357.05. The material also states that NTPC shares have corrected 20% from their September 2024 highs, and gained around 7% over the past 12 months.

A broader gauge was also cited: the Nifty Energy index jumped by 2.4% to the day’s high, supported by rising electricity demand, a favourable sector outlook, and investor interest in renewable energy companies.

NTPC’s Chhattisgarh clean energy plan and nuclear MoU

Beyond brokerage calls, the material includes a company-led capex signal from NTPC. Earlier this month, NTPC announced plans to invest Rs 96,000 crore in clean energy projects in Chhattisgarh. The company said it signed multiple agreements worth Rs 96,000 crore with the state government at the Chhattisgarh Energy Investors Summit-2025 in Raipur.

Within that set of agreements, NTPC signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the state government for setting up 4,200 MW of nuclear capacity in Chhattisgarh, with an estimated investment of Rs 80,000 crore. The presence of nuclear in both Macquarie’s longer-term driver commentary and NTPC’s own announced plans underlines why the theme is being watched closely.

Reuters snapshot: NTPC Green’s quarterly update

A Reuters update included in the text describes a sharp improvement in NTPC Green Energy’s quarterly profit and revenue, alongside IPO-related cash management. It reported a nearly threefold increase in profit for the fourth quarter, attributed to a rise in electricity sales and interest income, with profit rising to Rs 200 crore (Rs 2 billion) for the quarter ended March 31 from Rs 80.95 crore (Rs 809.5 million) a year earlier.

It also reported that NTPC Green’s operational revenue climbed to Rs 622 crore (Rs 6.22 billion). The update further noted that the company secured $1.2 billion from its IPO, and saw a threefold surge in interest income from funds raised through the IPO and deposited in banks. The text states the company has about 4 GW of operational capacity and 20 GW in the pipeline, with an aim of 60 GW of energy capacity by fiscal year 2032.

Key numbers at a glance

Market impact: why transmission and regulated capex are central

The details cited in the material keep the market’s focus on two related ideas: rising electricity demand and the infrastructure needed to move power efficiently across regions. Macquarie’s US $11 billion transmission estimate frames grid expansion as a multi-year investment theme, which can directly influence capex-led utilities and grid operators.

For investors, the target price revisions and upside percentages provided by Macquarie are one immediate output of that theme. The other is sentiment, reflected in the Nifty Energy index move and the reported intraday spikes in select stocks such as NTPC Green. But the material also shows investors weighing execution risk and valuation, especially where multiple target prices and ratings across notes differ.

Analysis: what the picks suggest about the upcycle

Macquarie’s preference list favours companies positioned across regulated assets and the transition build-out. In NTPC’s case, the brokerage’s reasoning combines regulated returns from thermal assets with renewables exposure, and flags nuclear as a potential longer-term catalyst once there is greater clarity.

Power Grid features because transmission build-out is a direct beneficiary of the capex cycle Macquarie expects. Adani Green’s target price increase indicates continued interest in renewables, but the placement lower in the preference stack suggests Macquarie sees relatively better risk-reward in the preferred names.

Conclusion

Macquarie’s latest sector view ties India’s power upcycle to demand growth and a transmission-led capex cycle, and it prefers NTPC, JSW Energy and Power Grid within that framework. The key reference point is the US $11 billion transmission investment estimate through 2035-36, alongside target price upgrades for several stocks. Investors will track updates on NTPC’s capex plans, including its Chhattisgarh clean energy commitments and any further clarity on nuclear over the next six months, as flagged in the brokerage commentary.