US stock futures rise after Iran strikes, easing fears 2026

Futures rebound after sharp cash-market losses

US stock futures moved higher after the US military’s actions against Iran, signalling a potential rebound from the latest risk-off stretch. Dow Jones futures were up about 0.8%, and S&P 500 futures also climbed around 0.8%, while Nasdaq 100 futures surged more than 1% in early moves. Other updates in the flow showed contracts for the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Dow rising in a narrower 0.4% to 0.7% band. The bounce followed a steep decline in the previous regular session, when all three major US benchmarks fell. The main question for investors was whether the latest moves would remain contained or broaden into a longer disruption.

What changed in the US-Iran headlines

The market’s tone shifted repeatedly as official messages moved between escalation and de-escalation. The US President said the US would resume strikes against Iran “tonight” and would capture Iran’s energy hub of Kharg Island “at some point”, reversing more de-escalatory remarks from a day earlier. Separately, updates also indicated US equity futures rebounded from a one-month low after the US signaled it had concluded its strikes against Iran, attempting to set the stage for negotiations to continue. Another report said US stock futures rebounded on Thursday after the US military announced it had completed its latest strikes on Iran, raising hopes that peace negotiations could resume. These conflicting signals mattered because they directly fed into oil and shipping risk perceptions, and therefore into broader equity risk appetite.

How Wednesday’s sell-off set up the “buy the dip” trade

The rebound came after heavy losses in Wednesday’s regular session. The Dow fell 1.87%, the S&P 500 lost 1.62%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.98%. Traders later described the futures move as “buying the dip”, tied to expectations that a swift conclusion to the latest round of US strikes could allow talks over a peace deal to restart and support the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. In that context, S&P 500 futures rose 0.6% to recover from a five-week low, and Nasdaq 100 contracts advanced about 1%. The core dynamic was not a new macro data point, but the market trying to price the duration and intensity of the conflict.

Tuesday’s session: intraday shock, late recovery

Earlier in the week, markets already showed stress around the same theme. US stocks posted a mixed close on Tuesday, recovering from steeper declines amid escalating tensions between the US and Iran and an inflationary backdrop. The S&P 500 declined 0.3%, while the Nasdaq Composite fell about 1%, after losses earlier in the day were reported to have reached as much as 3.5%. The Dow managed a small gain of about 0.2%. Reports also noted buyers stepped in during the afternoon session, with the Nasdaq recovering from a peak decline of about 3.3%, while the S&P 500 reduced losses after being down as much as 2.7% at one point. The open had been positive, with the S&P 500 up 0.3%, the Nasdaq up 0.7%, and the Dow up 0.6%, before sentiment reversed.

Records and near-records still in the background

Despite the volatility, parts of the market were still hovering close to record territory in other updates. On one Thursday, US equities predominantly climbed and traded near all-time highs after an Axios report suggested a potential peace agreement between the US and Iran, pending final endorsement from President Donald Trump. FactSet data in that update showed the Dow was unchanged, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both rose 0.3%. Separately, a “Dow Jones Today” update described a session when the Dow rose 631.06 points (1.38%) to 46,208.53, the S&P 500 gained 80.10 points (1.23%) to 6,586.77, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 299.15 points (1.38%) to 21,946.76. Other market notes said the S&P 500 rose 0.52% to 7,003.82 and later climbed to 7,013.22 intraday on hopes of de-escalation after another round of talks was announced.

Key numbers investors were tracking

The news flow included several index levels and percentage moves tied to shifts in the conflict narrative, from sell-offs to record closes.

Why the Strait of Hormuz and Kharg Island mattered to equities

Some of the most equity-relevant conflict details were tied to energy and shipping routes. Traders linked the “buy the dip” move to hopes that a peace deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would get back on track. Later, another update said US stocks reached record levels after Iran announced the Strait of Hormuz was currently open, with the S&P 500 up 1.2% and closing above 7,100 for the first time, while the Nasdaq rose 1.5% and the Dow jumped 1.8% (over 850 points). At the same time, the President’s comment about capturing Kharg Island focused attention on energy infrastructure risk. Together, these points shaped how much geopolitical risk premium investors demanded across equities.

Market impact: rotation signals and volatility cues

The tension-driven moves were also visible in sector positioning and risk gauges mentioned in the updates. One account highlighted that a shift away from semiconductor stocks continued during the sell-off as tensions escalated, even as afternoon buying reduced the damage. Another summary said financial and tech shares led gains during sessions that ended at record highs, and volatility fell to its lowest since February, despite ongoing geopolitical and inflation concerns. The combination suggests investors were not only reacting to headlines, but also recalibrating exposure between growth, cyclicals, and perceived defensives as the situation changed.

Conclusion: investors remain headline-driven

US stock futures rose as investors weighed a rapid shift from “strikes completed” signals to renewed threats of further action. The previous day’s sharp declines and the rebound from one-month and five-week lows show how sensitive positioning has become to each new development. Markets also kept one eye on record-level price action and the possibility of a US-Iran agreement referenced in reports, while tracking whether the Strait of Hormuz remains open. The next key catalyst is the direction of official statements and any confirmed steps toward negotiations, alongside any further military action indicated for “tonight.”